Why did Rosenberg come？
United Daily News, October 20, 2023
Chair Laura Rosenberger of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and Michael Pignatello, senior advisor to the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs of the U.S. Department of State, visited Taiwan on October 15 for five days. This was Rosenberg's third visit to Taiwan since taking over as AIT chair in March.
Rosenberg met with the three candidates during this trip -- William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party, Hou Yu-ih of the KMT, and Ko Wen-je of the TPP. However, it has only been four months since her last visit to Taiwan. During this period, Mr. Lai and Mr. Hou, respectively, went to the United States where she met them both. This leads people to wonder why she needs to come to Taiwan again so soon.
One reason could be Taiwan's fast-changing political situation, especially the heated discussions and complicated situations about the cooperation between the KMT and TPP. Since she represents the U.S. government and the White House, she hopes to meet directly with the candidates and their staff to understand the current situation first-hand.
There are different speculations about the attitude of the United States towards the cooperation between the KMT and TPP. Some people believe that the United States hopes to promote healthy bipartisan competition in Taiwan, and is more willing to deal with the predictable KMT. Therefore, the United States is putting pressure on Mr. Ko to make concessions. People close to Mr. Ko revealed that Rosenberg wanted to meet him in the United States when he was on the West Coast earlier this month, but Mr. Ko declined. Now that she has arrived in Taiwan, he has to meet her.
However, some people believe that the current attitude of the United States has gradually shifted from thinking that Mr. Lai is the only option for the United States, as per a statement by top leaders of the DPP, to understanding that Mr. Lai is not the only option. This is what Rosenberg said at the press conference before leaving Taiwan: The United States has long-term interests in Taiwan. No matter which political party is elected, the U.S. policy toward Taiwan will remain unchanged.
This proves that in every Taiwan presidential election in the past, the United States would not bet only on one side, but on both sides to ensure that U.S. interests could be fully protected. Mr. Hou's previous visit to the United States was said to have given the United States a very good impression. Mainland China's harsh criticism towards Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia of the KMT for being "pro-American but not pro-China" only strengthened the KMT's reputation in the eyes of the United States.
On the other hand, the TPP did not give the United States a trustworthy impression, so in the assessment of the cooperation between the Blue and White camps, Ko was at a disadvantage in the eyes of the United States.
The second reason for Rosenberg's visit to Taiwan may be more important. This is evident when she emphasized at the press conference that the United States opposes any party's unilateral change of the status quo and does not support Taiwan independence. The United States supports cross-strait dialogue and calls on Beijing to engage in dialogue with Taiwan.
Third, while Rosenberg's visit serves as an early warning of possible new U.S. commitments to the mainland, it also aims to assure Taiwan that this will not affect the United States' rock-solid security assurances. As many people worry the mainland is willing to join upcoming the Biden-Xi meeting because they expect the United States to make new commitments on the Taiwan issue, exchanges between the United States and China on the Taiwan issue are currently being actively carried out.
The latest hint from mainland China on U.S.-China relations came on October 9. When Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in Beijing, he said that there are a thousand reasons to improve U.S.-China relations and not a single reason to ruin relations between the two countries. The two sat down side by side in an equal manner for eighty minutes.
However, observers believe that Mr. Xi's will to go to San Francisco to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Meeting in November and hold a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Biden was not due to Xi's expression of goodwill in his speech, but because when Schumer asked Mr. Xi in person to change China’s position towards the war between Israel and Hamas, Mr. Xi was immediately willing to comply. In addition, the United States was very cautious in ensuring Mr. Xi’s visit went smoothly, it even considered postponing the announcement of upgraded measures to control chip exports to China until after the sideline meeting with Xi at APEC. In the end, bowing to pressure from Congress, the US government still informed China first for fear of offending Beijing.
The core of the meeting with Xi Jinping in San Francisco is still the Taiwan issue. That is, when Director Wang Yi of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Chinese Communist Party, and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met in Malta, Wang Yi said that the Taiwan issue is the first insurmountable red line in U.S.-China relations.
What China really wants from the United States is to have a new statement on the Taiwan issue, and to actually implement it. The new statement may be the “four no’s and one no-intention”—verbal commitments the United States has given before. Now Beijing hopes these must be written in words and concrete operating instructions.
The four no’s and one no-intention came from Mr. Xi’s phone call last March to discuss the situation between Russia and Ukraine. Xinhua News Agency stated in a press release that President Biden reiterated during the meeting that the United States does not seek to fight a new cold war with China, does not seek to change China's system, does not seek to oppose China by strengthening alliances, does not support Taiwan independence, and has no intention to engage in conflict with China.
But this was never seen in U.S. press releases and official documents. Chen Ming-tong, then director of the National Security Bureau, emphasized in the Legislative Yuan that this was a cognitive operation by Communist China. "The clear message that the United States gave us did not include this." However, when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Mr. Xi in June, he once again repeated the four no’s and one no-intention promise. This shows that it has become a new prerequisite for U.S.-China exchanges. However, this is still only seen in the mainland official media. The United States has not released the content of this promise. The formulation now has fallen into the awkward gray area of respective interpretations and expressions.
But now that they are to hold a meeting between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi, and even pre-meeting consultations, they cannot avoid the premise of the four no’s and one no-intention. Implications involve the situation in Taiwan after the election in January next year. What should the United States do to prevent China from taking reckless actions?
Rosenberg came to Taiwan this time, in addition to observing the cooperation between the KMT and TPP, she is to convey that even if Mr. Xi visits San Francisco and reaches certain agreements with China, it will not affect U.S. support for Taiwan, but more importantly, Taiwan must behave responsibly and clearly understand its boundaries.